Ju Ju Ju

I will try and make this easy for you. If you are not interested in the future of Roatan and are not willing to look at the following concepts in an honest, open minded manner then click “DELETE” right now. You may not like everything you read but it should give you ‘food for thought’.

www.spartanburgangels.com/paradigm.htm

The term “paradigm shift” has found uses in other contexts, representing the notion of a major change in a certain thought-pattern a radical change in personal beliefs, complex systems or organizations, replacing the former way of thinking or organizing with a radically different way of thinking or organizing.

The phrase has been abused in “marketing speak”, and is often considered a meaningless buzzword in this context. This is now so widespread that R. L. Trask lists it in his book Mind The Gaffe as a phrase never to use, and he advises caution when reading anything that contains this phrase.

That said; I am neither an economist nor a sociologist or biologist. But I am not stupid either. Everyone has an agenda that they follow. Some agendas are obvious and others not so obvious. Some agendas might not even be consciously recognized by those that harbor them. I am going to give you a list (It will not be a complete list) of agendas. See which ones apply to you and study the others and you will discover the REAL problems affecting and controlling the outcome of the ‘Quality of Life’ on Roatan.

“Change” is inevitable; but when change is ‘rapid’ it is referred to as a ‘paradigm shift’. There is a paradigm shift occurring in Roatan at this time. What this shift will mean to you depends on your agenda and how you respond to the agenda of others. Therefore it pays to analyze your own agenda(s) and see how they fit with the agenda of others and that will give you a clue to what action you need to take to either fulfill your own agenda(s) or at least protect yourself should the opposing agendas of others supersede your agenda(s).

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITES:

This would have to be divided up into three very basic categories. Immediate (Around 1 year term) Long term (Thought of as 10 years or longer.) and short term (The present out to 10 years.) Neither of these periods is cast in stone. Many variables (Some unknown) might affect the time frames. When you think of “Investment” you must define that as a ‘profit motive’. That is clearly an agenda.

What this means:

Immediate - Build houses, condos, hotels, motels and similar where you finish the job and take your money and ‘leave’.

Risk factors:

Immediate - Only the normal concerns with the investment meeting with demand. Concerns, minimal with the exception of meeting local laws (Generally insufficient to protect the environment, by US standards.)

Position and actions likely taken: Resist an upgrading of laws as that would likely increase investment costs and reduce either profitability or demand. Do not look for this person to be likely to want an increase in law enforcement unless they see it as increasing the demand for their investment. This calls for almost unbridled expansion of tourism which feeds these investments.

Near term - any investment where the payout would be 10 years or less. Normal for any business venture. I.e. Restaurant, dive operation or some similar business venture. Might include purchasing a home or house for rent for the short term investment. Value of the investment at the end of the period.

Position and actions likely taken: Support an increase in tourism and other activities that would increase traffic to your investment and demand for your services. Support an increase in law enforcement but not necessarily an increase in quality of services such as sewage treatment as it would be too expensive. Likely support a decrease in or a moratorium on the development of additional homes, etc. unless the investment is in undeveloped or underdeveloped land, the value of which would be reduced by such action.

Long term - dependent upon how the paradigm shift affects your particular investment. I.e. The demise of the reef would have a drastic effect on the desirability of a dive operation. Loss of affordable pure water would have a GREAT effect on almost every type of investment.

Position and actions likely taken: This could be a mix of the above two except that emphasis would be placed on protecting the reef if your investment is so oriented. Either controlled expansion or even a moratorium on additional construction would be likely to be supported since either would increase the value of ‘in place’ investments and lessen the demand for increased services which would increase their own expenses.

SECLUDED, QUIET LIFE STYLE:

Risk factor: Already drastically changing. With the increase of building on the island and more permanent and transient residents the quiet nature of the island is changing at a rapid rate. If this is what you are looking for; it is rapidly disappearing.

Position and actions likely taken: This position would likely be vehemently opposed to increased tourism; especially cruise ships which increase traffic congestion and place a burden on in place services. Would also likely support a decrease in tourism as that feeds demand for homes for permanent residence or rental. This person would likely be despondent about that they have lost. Therefore opposing anything that changes the status quo.

ECONOMICAL PLACE TO LIVE/RETIRE:

Risk factor: As the island becomes more commercialized and dependent upon the tourist influx the costs of normal services and expendables such as food are increasing. Where once you could hire a gardener or cook/housekeep/maid for mere dollars (US) the expected wages are increasing along with the costs, but at an even higher rate due to the difference between the original and the US standard.

Position and actions likely taken: The position this person would likely take would be similar to the previous scenario but would also put additional pressure on their decision of whether or not to consider moving there to live for an extended period or retire due the likelihood of increased expenses on the horizon.

I believe you can see from the above that there could be many interactions between these different agendas. While I am sure there are other ‘agendas’ I have chosen these three as the most prevalent in terms of affecting the desirability of the island in order to show how a person’s agenda might affect their opinion and actions concerning other factors such as law enforcement, environmental protection, controlling the rate of change and upgrading the level of protections given to each of those areas of concern. But whatever your agenda you hold you need to become involved with like minded people and work for the change that favors your agenda.

I will state my position once again: I am not an economist, sociologist or botanist. I do not own any land in Roatan, have no relatives who live there nor any business interests there outside of my interest in the welfare of the indigenous peoples of Roatan, Honduras. What affects the island as a whole will have an even greater effect on that group of people.

My prognoses, which are only as good as my qualifications, which are minimal, are that the reefs will be essentially dead within 10 years. Beginning efforts to protect them are good and should not be given up as a lost cause; but the rate of change in the existing laws and the quality of law enforcement cannot come soon enough to save the reefs. My point of reference is Pennekamp Park in the Florida Keys. The loss of pure potable water is a matter of conjecture only in the sense that much of the natural water supply currently available is in serious question. The wells are being polluted at an increasing rate and cisterns are not an answer for high density housing, if suitable at all! Costs could sky-rocket due to the need/demand for a general sewer system and what it is going to cost to supply an ample quantity of pure water. Law enforcement in all areas is problematical but is even sketchier in ‘third-world countries.

In the US, many beaches test the water quality for health concerns and close them if the water quality does not pass acceptable levels. I shudder to think what would happen if similar tests were done to the water off the beaches and other areas people swim, in Roatan??? My own research shows that there are better methods of waste disposal than open bottom septic tanks; but even though they output a higher quality of effluent, it is still not pure. Hence, ultimately the demand for a general sewer system.

How will this affect you, personally? It depends on what your overall expectations and goals are. As for me; I would love to live there but cannot afford a place to live. And at my age and state of health, I would not be looking at a long term investment. The dollar factor will continue to rule where new investments are concerned. A new community going in and meeting all Honduran laws affecting the environment says both a lot and only a little. Unless those laws are upgraded and enforced, Roatan will continue to experience degradation in the quality of the previously mentioned areas of concern. And how you upgrade previously allowed totally insufficient waste disposal is problematic at the least and prohibitively expense at the worse.

This is not meant to be a demeaning article about Roatan. I believe it is a beautiful place to visit and even to live but you have to consider the realities. Should anyone take exception to what is written here I welcome your response to:

achristianplace@charter.net

Robert Black

Robert Black has an Associate Degree in Business with many years as a retail manager. He has also had significant experience in diving the reefs off of Florida. His interest lies in the welfare of the indigenous peoples of Roatan, Honduras.

Speculative activity is carried on stock exchanges through options trading. An option in the stock exchange terminology means ‘a right.’ In an option deal, therefore, the right to buy or sell a certain security within a certain time and at a certain price is purchased from a dealer. It may be an option or right to purchase securities, when it will be known as a call option. If it is the right to sell securities, which is being secured, it may be called a put option. When the two options are combined and the party securing the option purchases a right either to purchase or to sell a certain number of securities at a certain price up to an agreed date in the future, it may be referred to as a double option, or a put and call option.

When a speculator expects the price of a security to rise in the future, he may obtain or purchase a call option. In this way, he will be able to purchase the security at a lower price and sell it at a higher price, which may be ruling in the market at a future date. If, however, the price does not rise according to his expectation, he may not exercise his right or option to purchase or sell securities. Similarly, a put option is usually secured by those who expect a fall in the share price. For securing such a right, the speculator has to pay a premium to the party granting it.

The premium is known as the option money. If the option is not exercised, the speculator will lose only the option money. Thus the loss to the speculator will be limited to the amount of option money. Such dealings are, therefore, usually entered into by those who do not want to risk their capital, but at the same time want to take advantage of variations in price. A put and call option is, of course, in the nature of a gamble. The speculator may purchase or sell as he finds profitable at the next settlement.

Options Trading provides detailed information on Options Trading, Stock Options Trading, Futures Options Trading, Options Trading Software and more. Options Trading is affiliated with Options Trading.

One of the most common mistakes made by inexperienced investors is trying to “catch a falling knife”. This is the phrase used to describe the habit of buying stocks that are in “freefall”, and is a poor strategy, albeit common among new investors. Sadly, it is a common practice even among old and experienced investors. I’ve even fallen prey to it myself.

Remember, there are two primary approaches to investing: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. We generally fall into the fundamental camp, since we evaluate stocks based upon their valuations, rather than looking primarily at their short-term price movements. We take this direction because we believe this provides the greatest potential for long-term success.

A single-minded view of only the fundamentals of an investment, however, can limit an investor’s profits and lead to some unpleasant positions. This is because there are real limitations to buying a stock as it falls. One may purchase a stock that appears to be a great value at $10, only to see it fall to $5. Surely, if the stock rises again to $20, you may have been “right” to buy at $10, but one might argue that you weren’t “right enough”. Buying at 5 would have yielded a 300% return, while you settled for only 100%. Furthermore, if you were convinced that $10 is a reasonable price, you might have saved time by buying it on the way back up instead of on the way down.

It is quite simple - buying a stock that is in mid-fall is not a pleasant experience, and it isn’t difficult to come up with a variety of other strategies that would bring happier outcomes.

Still, we mustn’t avoid all stocks which have dropped. In fact, studies have shown that investors who buy stocks which have fallen hard tend to outperform the market on a regular basis. In fact, such a bottom-fishing strategy can provide one of the best performance levels of all strategy sets. Missing out on these opportunities can be costly.

The decision then is not whether to buy “fallen angels”, but WHEN. This is where a tad of technical analysis skill comes in handy. While technical tools can’t really tell you which stocks to buy (unless you’re willing to buy any piece of junk that happens to have good price momentum), it can lead us to a better understanding of timing. Once we have selected a good investment based on fundamentals, it is time to decide when to put the money down.

A good first step is to watch for a positive movement on good volume before committing. As long as the stock is dropping, there is a good chance you may get it at a better price. Better to wait a few days (or weeks) to assure your purchase is timed appropriately. There’s no advantage to buying before the time is right, even if the choice of stock is ideal. It is here that patience is a virtue. Don’t try to catch falling knives, but be sure to pick them up after they hit the floor.

By: Scott Pearson

For more information, quesitons or comments please visit our website at www.valueview.net. You can also email us at article@valueview.net or Scott directly at scott@valueview.net

President Scott Pearson is the Chief Investment Advisor for Value View Financial as well as a writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As editor and publisher of Investor’s Value View, a nationally distributed investment newsletter, he provides general money tips and investment advice to readers, and demonstrates a special knack for locating and providing analysis for undervalued stocks.
To reach Scott for questions or comments please send an email to scott@valueview.net. You can also visit his website at http://www.valueview.net

There has been a recent market obsession with earnings forecasts and guidance numbers. But this not surprising, with the negative market sentiment and overall economic situation. With so much uncertainty, earnings have been the last benchmark for equity investors. Further fueling the importance of earnings forecasts are the worsening situation in Iran, Iraq, and Nigeria, combined with higher interest rates and oil prices. But these worldwide problems have been already factored in these forecasts. So it is more important to look for positive long-term opportunities, not short term factors.

Looking at true long term value and competitiveness will protect the investor from any short term disappointments, both in forecasts, as well as in stock price movements. So if any interesting companies come up on your investment radar, start buying now for the future, and you will not be disappointed. Investments should always be made with a long term viewpoint, identifying competitive advantages.

Most negative factors are usually already factored in the stock price, so start focusing on future opportunities and the share price will start moving upwards again at some point. But don’t get nervous, this is also a long term process, so if you wait you will be rewarded.

Peter Kopitz is currently living in Bangkok, Thailand after graduating with Honors from the University Of Chicago Graduate School Of Business with a Masters Degree in Business Administration. He is actively involved in researching economic and political development in Thailand, focusing primarily on property development, security analysis and investment banking. Hawaii Home Loans | Honolulu Realtor | Hawaii Rentals